Do PhD Economists Believe Our Market Will Crash?

February 11, 2025

Don’t take my word for it! Ask 100+ of our country’s smartest economists!

Many people love to weigh in on their opinions about the housing market. Some people are current homeowners and want prices to go up! Some people are frustrated renters and want prices to fall!


Some people are "arm chair economists" and have interesting theories!


As for me, I love to see what the chief economists, the PhD's, the heads of finance and real estate companies believe will happen. They have the experience, education, and vested interest in being obsessed with the data that supports the market.


Pulsenomics produces a quarterly survey that asks over 100 economists their forecast for the next 5 years, and I am excited to share their feedback. 


The average property appreciation estimate for our country is 4.09% over the next 6 years! That means in total, a house today will be worth 27.16% more total, in 5 years. How cool is that? (If you are able to buy a house before that happens anyways!)


Here's another perspective, let's say you buy a $300,000 house today, and do a 6% down payment (average first time homebuyer down payment). That's a $18,000 investment in the home.


The house is expected to be worth $381,480 in 6 years. A "profit" of $81,480!

If you could invest $18,000 in a stock and you were fairly certain it would be worth $81,480 in 6 years, would you buy it? That's a 352.67% rate of return on your investment. Or 28.62% per year.


Here is a link to the report. pulsenomicsq42024.pdf


Here is a link to the website: https://pulsenomics.com/surveys/#home-price-expectations


And here's a link to an interesting special report they released.




Questions? As always you can text or call me at 414-488-0438

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